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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177746
11/02/15 11:12 PM
11/02/15 11:12 PM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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My comment: A good summary of Canada's current investments outflow with all of this economic shaking. Forget China: This Extremely "Developed" Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Everhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02...ney-outflow-eve11/02/2015 While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America's own back yard.
According to BofA's Kamal Sharma, Canada’s basic balance - a combination of the capital and the current account: a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows - swung from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to a deficit of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June. That’s the fastest one-year deterioration among 10 major developed nations.
Citing Sharma's data Bloomberg writes that "money is flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world as the nation’s decade-long oil boom comes to an end and little else looks ready to take the industry’s place as an economic driver." In fact, based on the chart below, the outflow is the fastest on record. "This is Canadian investors that are pushing money abroad," said Alvise Marino, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. "The policy in Canada the last 10 years has greatly favored investments in energy. Now the drop in oil prices made all that investment unprofitable."
The reasons for the accelerating otflows are familiar, or mostly one reason: the collapse in crude oil, among the nation’s biggest exports, has dropped to half of its 2014 peak. "The slump has derailed projects this year in Canada’s oil sands - one of the world’s most expensive crude-producing regions. Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision to put its Carmon Creek drilling project on ice last week lengthened that list to 18, according to ARC Financial Corp."
Worse, there does not appear to be any improvement, despite the recent stabilization in Brent prices:
More recent data on where companies and mutual-fund investors are putting their money show the trend extended into the second half of the year, suggesting demand for the Canadian dollar and the country’s assets is still ebbing. The currency is already down 11 percent this year, after touching an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar in September. Where is all this capital going? Canadian companies have been looking abroad for acquisitions. Royal Bank of Canada is expected to close its $5.4 billion purchase of Los Angeles-based City National Corp. Monday, its biggest-ever takeover. It’s part of a net outflow of C$73 billion this year for mergers and acquisitions, both completed and announced, according to Credit Suisse data.
Canada's stock market confirms this trend: nine of the 10 best-performing companies on the country’s benchmark stock index in the past two years have favored buying growth abroad rather than expanding at home.
Individuals are following suit.
"While international appetite for Canadian financial securities has held steady this year, domestic mutual-fund investors have pulled money from Canada-focused funds and plowed it into global choices for six straight months, the longest streak in two years, according to Investment Funds Institute of Canada data compiled by Bank of Montreal." Bloomberg calculates that more weakness for the CAD, and more capital outflows, are on deck as the Canadian dollar has to get cheaper to make Canadian businesses outside of the oil industry competitive enough with foreign peers to make them worth investing in, according to Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at Bank of Montreal.
Canada's economic weakness was recently confirmed when it reported two months ago that it had entered its first recession since the financial crisis.
Earlier today, Canada's manufacturing sector got even more bad news when the latest RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI survey dropped to a record low in October, with output, new orders and employment all declining since the previous month. Moreover, new export sales dropped for the first time since April, with survey respondents noting that weaker global economic conditions had weighed on new business volumes.
In other words, not even the tumbling loonie is helping boost exports: a bedrock assumption of modern monetary policy.
Meanwhile, input costs rose at a sharp and accelerated pace in October, which placed pressure on operating margins and contributed to a further slight increase in factory gate charges.
Finally, the country is expected to post its 12th straight merchandise trade deficit this week, according to every economist in a Bloomberg survey.
Perhaps it is ironic: a year after we predicted the death of the petrodollar would cripple Emerging Markets around the globe (something which was confirmed in the China devaluation/EM debt crisis of 2015) the nation most impacted by the collapse in oil is neither China, nor - as many had expected - Russia, but what to many is a bedrock of economic stability: the AAA rated Canada.
How long until not Putin but Harper's successor is seen in the White House, begging Obama to put an end to QE so that the US shale sector, thanks to infinite junk bond refills courtesy of the Federal Reserve and "investors" allocating other people's money, will mercifully die and prevent Canada's economy from sliding from recession into an outright depression?
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177757
11/03/15 04:29 PM
11/03/15 04:29 PM
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SDA Active Member 2024
5500+ Member
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Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 6,512
Midland
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Elle, I believe that you have been drawn toward some unhealthy spiritual influences as a direct result of your rejection of much of the Spirit of Prophesy. You told me that you have little confidence in the writings of Ellen White after the death of James White.
misrepresenting information... I did not refer to myself but to others. I said the following : .... So to me those that suspect any writings beyond 1881 is not that far fetch. Elle, why did you say that? Your statement in itself says it is you yourself: .... So to me those that suspect any writings beyond 1881 is not that far fetch. And then with what ProdigalOne presented forth, you are accusing him of misrepresenting but about the only thing he could be accused is an understatement. What are you trying to pull? Are you a shim?
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177861
11/08/15 05:47 PM
11/08/15 05:47 PM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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US Debt Is 3 Times More Than You Think" Warns Former Chief US Accountanthttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08...cans-have-lost-11/08/2015 In a shocking admission for most of mainstream America, the former U.S. comptroller general says the real U.S. debt is closer to about $65 trillion than the oft-cited figure of $18 trillion, thanks to unfunded liabilities which simply cannot be ignored. As The Hill reports, unless economic growth accelerates, he warns, "you’re not going to be able to provide the kind of social safety net that we need in this country," adding unequivocially that Americans have "lost touch with reality" when it comes to spending. As The Hill reports, Dave Walker, who headed the Government Accountability Office (GAO) under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, said when you add up all of the nation’s unfunded liabilities, the national debt is more than three times the number generally advertised. “If you end up adding to that $18.5 trillion the unfunded civilian and military pensions and retiree healthcare, the additional underfunding for Social Security, the additional underfunding for Medicare, various commitments and contingencies that the federal government has, the real number is about $65 trillion rather than $18 trillion, and it’s growing automatically absent reforms,” Walker told host John Catsimatidis on “The Cats Roundtable” on New York’s AM-970 in an interview airing Sunday. The former comptroller general, who is in charge of ensuring federal spending is fiscally responsible, said a burgeoning national debt hampers the ability of government to carry out both domestic and foreign policy initiatives. “If you don’t keep your economy strong, and that means to be able to generate more jobs and opportunities, you’re not going to be strong internationally with regard to foreign policy, you’re not going to be able to invest what you need to invest in national defense and homeland security, and ultimately you’re not going to be able to provide the kind of social safety net that we need in this country,” he said. He said Americans have “lost touch with reality” when it comes to spending. Walker called for Democrats and Republicans to put aside partisan politics to come together to fix the problem. "You can be a Democrat, you can be a Republican, you can be unaffiliated, you can be whatever you want, but your duty of loyalty needs to be to country rather than to party, and we need to solve some of the large, known, and growing problems that we have,” he said. * * * Of course, that is to say nothing of the other unfunded liability - America's Pension Ponzi, as we detailed previously... Just how big of a problem is this you ask? Well, pretty big, according to Moody’s which, as we noted last month, contends that the largest 25 public pensions are underfunded by some $2 trillion. It’s against that backdrop that we present the following graphic and color from Goldman which together demonstrate the amount by which state and local governments would need to raise contributions to "bring plans into balance over time."
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177948
11/11/15 12:39 PM
11/11/15 12:39 PM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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My comment: A good compilation of what is currently happening in Canada. " It's A Bloodbath" - Here Is The Biggest Casualty Of Canada's Recessionhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-11/its-bloodbath-here-biggest-casualty-canadas-recession11/11/2015 In the past year, we have extensively profiled the collapse of ground zero of Canada's oil industry, Calgary, as a result of the plunge in the price of oil, in posts such as the following: -"Canada Crude Contagion: Calgary Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years" -"Canada's Biggest Oil Casualty To Date: Calgary's Nexen Shutters Oil Trading Desk" -"The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst" -"Canada's Oil Patch Confidence Crashes" -"Canada Mauled by Oil Bust, Job Losses Pile Up – Housing Bubble, Banks at Risk" -"The Stage Is Set For A Massive Housing Market Correction in Canada's Oilpatch" Since then it has only gotten worse for Canada, and as of two it culminated with the first official recession in 7 years. Additionally, in September we profiled the expected collapse of the Calgary commercial real estate market when we reported that in Alberta Canada now has 1.7 million square feet of empty office space, the most in North America, with another 5.2 million under construction! After years of booming construction, the natural resource rich country is starting to feel the pinch. Overnight Bloomberg followed up on this stunning deterioration when it, too, reported that "office-tower owners in Canada’s energy hub are about to feel the full force of the oil-price crash." Using data from real estate brokers including Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. and Avison Young, Bloomberg calculates that vacancy is already at a five-year high in Calgary and rents are the lowest since 2006 after thousands of office jobs were cut. Energy company tenants have now begun to ask for rental relief and are offering subleases for as little as half the going rate. The backlog is even worse: five new office towers with about 3.8 million square feet (353,031 square meters) of space hits the market in the next three years. End result: if one ignores shadow vacancy rates, it is "only" as bad as 2010. If one adds shadow vacancy, or space leased but sitting empty, the rate jumps to 16%, the highest since the mid-1980s. In downtown Calgary, the vacancy rate jumped to 14 percent in the third quarter, the highest since 2010 and compared with 5 percent for downtown Toronto, according to CBRE Group Inc. Companies are subleasing a record 2.7 million square feet, the brokerage said. That doesn’t include as much as 2 million square feet of so-called "shadow vacancy" or space leased but sitting empty, which would push vacancy to 16 percent, the most since the mid-1980s. As for Canada in general, the vacany rate has already surpassed the 2009 highs. The following comment from Alexi Olcheski, an office-leasing principal at Avison Young from his office in downtown Calgary, says it all: "It is a bloodbath. We’re at the highest point of fear and uncertainty now."
The real estate mauling is impacting the public stocks of office REITs: "caught in the downturn are tower owners including Dream Office REIT, Artis REIT and Morguard Corp., whose shares have dropped about 27 percent, 14 percent and 5.1 percent respectively over the past 12 months. The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Capped REIT Index is down 8.7 percent over the same period compared with a 8.2 percent drop in the broad S&P/TSX Composite Index. U.S. crude has dropped more than half since its peak in June 2014 to hover around $45 a barrel." Some more examples of how the collapse in oil prices is spreading through the economy, which is on the verge of grinding to a halt: Penn West Plaza, owned by developer Morguard, is among the buildings with empty floors. About 38 percent of its 621,628 square feet of office space is on the market for sublease, according to leasing documents. The going rate for the penthouse of the West tower is “negotiable” while occupancy is “immediate” for other floors, according to the ads. Morguard didn’t return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment. Employment at Penn West Petroleum Ltd. shrank to less than 800 workers this year from about 2,250 three years ago. Athabasca Oil Corp., which eliminated more than 25 percent of its workforce last month, has been subleasing from Penn West and is also trying to find tenants to take some space off its hands, according to listings. Even Calgary’s most iconic tower, completed just a few years ago, isn’t immune. The 58-story Bow, Canada’s second-largest office building at 2.0 million square feet, is owned by H&R REIT and leased until 2038 to Encana Corp., the real estate firm’s largest tenant by revenue. Encana subleases 1 million square feet to Cenovus Energy Inc., which in turn aims to vacate and sublease half of that, according to Reg Curren, a Cenovus spokesman. Together, the firms cut about 1,500 jobs this year, part of the 36,000 job losses at energy companies across Canada since the oil rout began. Perhaps it is time for Canada to implement double seasonally-adjusted initial claims reports too and to pull a BLS, showing how despite reality, the job market is flying. For now one thing is preventing an all out real-estate disaster: subleasing, but even that is at best cutting losses by half, with subleases done at 50% of the original cost. This had lead to rents dropping to C$20.75 a square foot in downtown Calgary, the lowest since at least 2006. Subleasing is in overdrive and has helped buffer landlords from the impact of the oil slump. Avison Young’s Olcheski said he made his first quadruple sublease earlier this year, when a technology firm rented space from a company several leases removed from the main energy tenant. But the subleases are being done at as little as 50 percent of the original cost, according to Damien Mills, executive vice president and managing director of Western Canada for JLL. Rents have dropped to C$20.75 a square foot in downtown Calgary, the lowest since at least 2006, according to the brokerage. Which means one thing: more equity downside, and more layoffs: "Landlords now are forced to compete with somebody that’s looking for a very different return on their real estate cost," Mills said. Some owners are already feeling the pain. Two-thirds of Dream Office’s space in Calgary expires in the years up to 2019 and only 13 percent has been picked up, according to company documents. "With a smaller tenant size relative to most landlords, we believe this reduces leasing rollover risk as these tenants tend to be leaner, resulting in less headcount reductions during an economic downturn," Rajeev Viswanathan, chief financial officer of Dream Office, said by e-mail. The company is also aggressively pursuing smaller tenants, he said. But the worst news: another influx of soon to be completed office space means another 2 million square feet in rental availability are about to hit the market, sending rents to what may soon be record lows.
Artis REIT, which has 20 office buildings in Calgary with tenants including power generator TransAlta Corp., has 2.2 million square feet uncommitted starting in 2016, according to company documents. Artis executives didn’t respond to requests seeking comment. In addition to the current glut of space, five office towers -- each with at least 430,000 square feet -- are due for completion in the next three years in Calgary, some only 36 percent leased as of October. Olcheski, who’s worked in Calgary for about 10 years, is trying to remain optimistic amid the uncertainty. It’s going to be his best year yet for leases to smaller, non-energy tenants, for example. What happens then? Nobody knows, or rather, only god does: "God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound," he said. "I try not to let that penetrate my mind."
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177967
11/11/15 09:27 PM
11/11/15 09:27 PM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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China Is Canceling the Debt of the World’s Most Impoverished Nationshttp://thehigherlearning.com/2015/09/29/...rished-nations/September 29, 2015 Since the 1990s, a major part of Chinese foreign policy has been to invest in developing countries around the world. This includes private investments, like the billion-dollar solar project being spearheaded by a Chinese energy company in Ghana or the multibillion-dollar canal being built by a Chinese infrastructure firm in Nicaragua. It also includes public investment projects like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was launched earlier this year to help fund infrastructure projects in impoverished Asian countries (and to reduce the amount of influence wielded by the U.S.-led investment banks). On Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping made yet another commitment to help economic growth in the developing world, announcing that China would be canceling the debts of the world’s least developed countries. President Xi made the announcement while addressing a United Nations summit on global development goals. During his speech, he also pledged to establish a $2 billion fund dedicated to improving conditions in the most impoverished countries around the world. “Looking around the world, the peace and development remain the two major themes of the times,” President Xi told attendees at the summit in New York. He continued, “To solve various global challenges, including the recent refugee crisis in Europe, the fundamental solutions lie in seeking peace and realising development. Facing with various challenges and difficulties, we must keep hold of the key of the development. Only the development can eliminate the causes of the conflicts.” Xi’s speech came a day after the UN unveiled its new Global Goals for Sustainable Development, an ambitious plan that aims to eradicate poverty and hunger in the next 15 years. Coincidentally, China played a key role in helping the UN achieve its previous poverty reduction goals as well — BBC correspondent James Robbins explains, It was China’s extraordinary record shifting so many families out the ranks of the poor which ensured that the overall global record in poverty reduction under the previous Millennium Development Goals was substantial. China’s new pledge of financial support, as well as its promise to forgive the debts of the world’s poorest countries, show a continued commitment to the goal of reducing poverty worldwide. “The world is going through a historical process of accelerated evolution. The sunshine of peace, development and progress will be powerful enough to penetrate the clouds of war, poverty and backwardness,” President Xi said. Read more from the BBC. Read a full transcript of President Xi’s speech from Quartz.
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#177976
11/11/15 11:40 PM
11/11/15 11:40 PM
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SDA Active Member 2024
5500+ Member
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Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 6,512
Midland
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Did zerohedge ever admit their report on Carson was false?
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: kland]
#178004
11/12/15 09:53 PM
11/12/15 09:53 PM
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SDA Active Member 2024
5500+ Member
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Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 6,512
Midland
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Not shim. I believe "shill" is the word.
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#178010
11/13/15 09:43 AM
11/13/15 09:43 AM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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TPP Text Finally Released … It’s Even Worse Than We Thoughthttp://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/11/tpp-text-finally-released-its-even-worse-than-we-thought.htmlNovember 5, 2015 As we’ve noted in hundreds of articles, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a horrible pact which would destroy everything that America stands for. And see this, this, this and this. The full text of the TPP was finally released today after years of secrecy … and it’s even worse than we thought. One of America’s top TPP experts – Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch – said: Apparently, the TPP’s proponents resorted to such extreme secrecy during negotiations because the text shows TPP would offshore more American jobs, lower our wages, flood us with unsafe imported food and expose our laws to attack in foreign tribunals.
***
From leaks, we knew quite a bit about the agreement, but in chapter after chapter the final text is worse than we expected with the demands of the 500 official U.S. trade advisers representing corporate interests satisfied to the detriment of the public interest. Common Dreams explains how TPP would reduce our food safety: With its provisions that tie the hands of food inspectors at international borders and give more power to biotechnology firms, “the TPP is a giveaway to big agribusiness and food companies,” said Wenonah Hauter, Food & Water Watch executive director. Such corporate entities, she said, want to use trade deals like the TPP “to attack sensible food safety rules, weaken the inspection of imported food, and block efforts to strengthen U.S. food safety standards.”
Last month, the Center for Food Safety outlined the top five reasons “eaters should be worried about Obama’s new trade deal.” At the top of the list was the TPP’s ability to undermine efforts to label GMO foods. “More broadly,” the Center wrote in October, “any U.S. food safety rules on labeling, pesticides, or additives that [are] higher than international standards could be subject to challenge as ‘illegal trade barriers’.”
Indeed, according to Food & Water Watch, the final text released Thursday indicates that under a TPP regime, “agribusiness and biotech seed companies can now more easily use trade rules to challenge countries that ban GMO imports, test for GMO contamination, do not promptly approve new GMO crops or even require GMO labeling.”
“The TPP food safety and labeling provisions are worse than expected and bad news for American consumers and farmers,” said Hauter. “Congress must reject this raw deal that handcuffs food safety inspectors and exposes everyone to a rising tide of unsafe imported food.” And Tech Crunch notes that TPP could dramatically reduce our privacy.
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: kland]
#178013
11/13/15 12:23 PM
11/13/15 12:23 PM
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OP
Active Member 2019 Died February 12, 2019
2500+ Member
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,536
Canada
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Just notice this post which is worth clarifying. I came to most of what I believe today via studying at Adventist Forums before I ever heard of Stephen Jones.
But note you said you get your stuff at forums, not from the church. The Forums were all Adventist by which the great majority of the people there are SDAs and ARE the Church. These are the Adventist forums I have studied at for a good lenght of time. I have joined many other SDA Forums but did not stay long as they were too "bloodthirsty". If you have the time to read, you will see how I came to what I believe today which was before I read any of Stephen's stuff. I am "Blessings" at Adventist Online : linkI am "daisy" at Restoration Ministry : linkI have spent most of my studying here on this forum as I find it more effective for the adminsitration does a good job to keep people on the subject and away from attacking individuals.
Blessings
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Re: A new Global Economic Restructure in 2012
[Re: Elle]
#178020
11/14/15 02:32 AM
11/14/15 02:32 AM
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SDA Active Member 2024 Supporting Member 2023
Dedicated Member
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,205
Alberta, Canada
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Unfortunately, it is impossible to be absolutely certain of who you are really studying with on such sites. Maritime SDA Online has the most stringent membership requirements I have seen on any SDA site. Even so, in my short time here, I have discovered more than one person pretending to be a Seventh Day Adventist in order to undermine our Church and lead trusting souls away from the simple Truth in Christ.
The number of undercover proselytizers on less protected sites must be truely staggering!
"...I will not forget you. Behold, I have graven thee upon the palms of my hands..."
Isaiah 49:15-16
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Here is the link to this week's Sabbath School Lesson Study and Discussion Material: Click Here
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